With optimism running high at Baton Rouge, LSU football leader Brian Kelly enters his fourth season with one objective: finally mucking up the gears of the College Football Playoff. Despite three consecutive winning seasons since his purchase on campus for the year 2022, the Tigers have not been able to punch their ticket to the game’s largest stage. ESPN’s Football Power Index has now weighed in, producing an extensive outlook of LSU’s likelihood at every game on its schedule for 2025.
It kicks off with fireworks as No. 9 LSU travels on the road to Death Valley—not theirs, their opponent’s, Clemson’s—for prime-time encounter with the No. 4-ranked Tigers on Aug. 30. LSU has only a 46.2% chance of winning according to the FPI of ESPN, which ranks as one of the three games where the Bayou Bengals are not the favorite.
Those other two tough away games are on the road: on September 27 at Ole Miss (42.3%) and on November 8 at Tuscaloosa as LSU heads to play long-time powerhouse Alabama, and their chances plummet as low as 27.2%.
Despite those obstacles, though, the rest of the schedule appears promising. Here are the entire win probabilities for LSU, courtesy of ESPN’s FPI:
| 📅 Date | 🏈 Opponent | 🔮 Win Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Aug. 30 | at Clemson | 46.2% |
| Sept. 6 | vs. Louisiana Tech | 97.4% |
| Sept. 13 | vs. Florida | 57.5% |
| Sept. 20 | vs. SE Louisiana | 99.0% |
| Sept. 27 | at Ole Miss | 42.3% |
| Oct. 11 | vs. South Carolina | 56.7% |
| Oct. 18 | at Vanderbilt | 70.4% |
| Oct. 25 | vs. Texas A&M | 54.4% |
| Nov. 8 | at Alabama | 27.2% |
| Nov. 15 | vs. Arkansas | 69.3% |
| Nov. 22 | at Western Kentucky | 95.8% |
| Nov. 29 | at Oklahoma | 54.9% |
With nine games that LSU will be the favorite for, the FPI suggests that a strong regular season schedule is feasible. However, for Kelly and his staff, the real test will come with the road gauntlet and proving that they can win with the odds heavily stacked against them.
Clemson league opener will have primetime 7:30 p.m. ET start on ABC—a podium from which LSU can issue an early declaration. Behind quarterback Garrett Nussmeier back and with its roster rebuilt with transfer talent, the Tigers are long overdue for a defining year.
Will this finally be the year LSU breaks through? The numbers allow for it. The stakes demand it.
