The first Manchester derby of the 2025–26 season arrives this Sunday, and it’s not just pride on the line—it’s redemption. Both City and United come into the clash nursing bruises, not just physical but emotional, after stuttering starts to their campaigns.
For Manchester City, the numbers tell a story that feels unfamiliar. Two losses in their first three Premier League games—a stumble not seen since the pre-Sheikh Mansour era back in 2004–05. Last weekend’s collapse at Brighton was more than a blip; it was a reminder that even the most dominant sides can wobble. Pep Guardiola, usually the picture of control, finds himself in unfamiliar territory: three points from nine, a squad riddled with injuries, and whispers of vulnerability growing louder.
Manchester United, meanwhile, is walking a tightrope between promise and chaos. Their first win of the season came courtesy of a 97th-minute penalty against Burnley—controversial, yes, but desperately needed. That win followed a spirited performance against Arsenal and a humiliating EFL Cup exit to fourth-tier Grimsby Town. It’s been a rollercoaster, and the derby offers a chance to steady the ride.
City may be favorites—Opta’s supercomputer gives them a 65.6% chance of victory—but United have a knack for defying the odds in this fixture. They’ve handed Guardiola a quarter of his home defeats in the Premier League, including a dramatic comeback at the Etihad last December. In fact, away wins have become a theme in this rivalry: just six home victories in the last 20 league meetings.
United also arrive with momentum, unbeaten in their last four against City across all competitions, including that unforgettable FA Cup final win in May 2024. And with City potentially missing up to 10 first-team players, including Omar Marmoush, the door is ajar.
Still, City’s pedigree can’t be ignored. Just weeks ago, they dismantled Wolves 4–0, reminding everyone of their firepower. The expected points model suggests their performances haven’t been as poor as the results imply. And with a squad brimming with talent, a response feels inevitable.
This derby isn’t just a fixture—it’s a litmus test. For City, it’s about proving they’re still the force everyone fears. For United, it’s about showing they’re more than just flashes of brilliance. One thing’s certain: Sunday won’t be short on drama.
